Led By Trump, Right Wingers Are Finding Their Anti-Dem Message

Right wingers tested several messages about Democrats in 2023, but Trump is pushing them to focus on one above all others, and it's ugly.

Over the course of 2023, right wingers floated several different disinformation narratives about Democrats, and for most of the year, their base was most enthusiastic about one above all others - namely, that the Democrats were endangering kids. This narrative, boosted by online accounts like Libs Of TikTok and Matt Walsh and by groups like Moms For Liberty, accuses Democrats of enabling “groomers” with LGBTQIA-inclusive policies, especially in schools. It ebbed and flowed, but in 2023, this was the top anti-Dem disinformation narrative shared by right wing accounts:

However, this narrative failed to produce results in the 2023 elections, especially in school board races where Moms For Liberty hoped to clean up.

Donald Trump appears to prefer another narrative, and the language used is getting uglier and more explicitly extremist. This is the “opening the border” narrative, the No. 2 most-shared disinformation narrative about Democrats in 2023.

In December, it took the top spot once again (and would have had an even more commanding position above all others, had it not been for an explicit video shared by a Democratic Senate staffer filmed in one of the Senate hearing rooms, which led to the big yellow surge in the middle of the chart):

Donald Trump and his surrogates have ratcheted up their messaging on the “Democrats are opening the borders” narrative:

Unfortunately, there is a real crisis fueling this - the number of migrants attempting to seek asylum in the United States is growing, and reached its highest level in December 2023.

But the language is becoming more extreme. Of the 3 posts above, 2 of them (including Trump’s Truth Social message) mention the white supremacist “Great Replacement” theory - alleging that Democrats are attempting to “replace” white voters with nonwhite immigrants to gain more political power.

There’s a term strongly associated with this theory: invasion.

The term “invasion” has only rarely been used about immigration for most of my political adult lifetime, but recently, use of the term has increased dramatically on the right (Vox has a good rundown of the term’s history here).

As always, events can alter the focus of political messaging. But it sure seems like the GOP is going to place a big bet on the Great Replacement Theory in 2024. Unfortunately, it’s a tough message to fight against. Right now, the most effective message in terms of posts shared appears to be that Republicans aren’t serious about securing the border, and that Democrats are:

I believe we should use what works, but I’m not a fan of this frame, which buys into the GOP notion that this humanitarian crisis is actually a threat to our safety and security. I’m of the view that we should fight on our turf and not theirs - abortion rights, democracy protection, and an economy that doesn’t favor corporations over people. I also believe that voter priorities are more in line with Democratic values than GOP values. But if we need a response, pointing out GOP hypocrisy on border security is working best at the moment (pointing out GOP hypocrisy typically is the best anti-Republican message in terms of performance - the public likes us to call them out on their bullshit).

Meanwhile, let’s do our best to change the conversation in 2024.