Project 2025: An Online Messaging Guide
The demographic groups most likely to mention it, the details that scare people most, and more.
A few short weeks and a political lifetime ago, this newsletter promised a messaging guide to Project 2025, using these words:
“Next week, assuming another game-changing event doesn’t occur before then, we’re going to dive deep into the discussion to create a Project 2025 Messaging Guide…”
Lol. Then, the assassination attempt happened. Then, JD Vance was picked. Then, Biden stepped aside and Vice President Harris stepped up. Several changes of game!
However, here we are, unburdened by what has been, and Project 2025 still matters.
And Democrats are still trying to figure out how to talk about it.
The issue is, there’s so much to talk about! Top posts on major social platforms are sort of all over the map:
The most common format is some kind of list - in other words, posts that educate the public on the basics of Project 2025 are more likely to be shared than any other format of post mentioning Project 2025.
However, most of these posts were shared around mid-July - nearly a month ago. There appears to be a lot more awareness of Project 2025 now. And several agenda items are particularly alarming to Americans.
Which details matter most?
Some proposals in Project 2025 have gotten more attention online than others, and two categories in particular appear to be resonating with the public (note - the posts above did not include partisan or geographic filters, but the below table uses data from swing states only, filtering out partisan accounts):
Abortion / women’s rights and education were both mentioned much more than all other issues, though Social Security & Medicare were also mentioned a fair amount.
Democratic messages about Project 2025 are probably most likely to get noticed if they mention or lead with one of those three topics.
Who is joining the conversation?
Overall, women have been slightly more likely to mention Project 2025, and older Americans are slightly more likely to mention it, but mostly the age and gender distribution is not especially notable - except for 19-24-year-olds, most groups are well-represented in the conversation:
In other words, Project 2025 is being talked about by just about everyone aside from those under 25 years old, who are less engaged than other groups.
However, different policies are definitely appealing to different people:
Women are much more vocal than men about the top three topics - Abortion / Women’s Rights, Public Education and Social Security/Medicare. Men were more vocal about Impact on Black Americans and Christian Nationalism.
Among age groups, younger people were more vocal about Public Education and Impact On Black Americans, while Abortion / Women’s Rights and Workers Rights skewed slightly older, and Social Security / Medicare was mentioned most by both people under 35 and over 54.
Abortion / Women’s Rights was the top issue in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, while Public Education was the top issue mentioned in Georgia and Michigan.
We’ll keep tracking this conversation to see how it evolves, but this guide should be a decent starter kit for Democrats and progressives trying to get a handle on how best to talk about Project 2025 online.